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More aggressive easing in China on the cards

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With China facing mounting headwinds, more policy easing is increasingly likely to support economic growth.

China’s economy is under pressure as it faces Omicron flare ups, geopolitical tensions and a yet-to-stabilise property sector. All this is likely to prompt Beijing to ease policy further which should support a gradual recovery in growth over the coming quarters.

The surge in COVID-19 cases is the most pressing challenge. The Omicron variant has spread across large parts of the country, including Shenzhen, the southern tech hub which is home to 17m people and is now in lockdown. Factories there have closed while production halts in other cities can’t be ruled out.

Beijing is sticking with its “dynamic zero” strategy with the vice premier recently urging local governments to reduce new cases to zero as soon as possible.

In the short term, we see this as a necessary and pragmatic step to minimise the health “shock”, but that means the potential economic shock may be bigger than previously expected. China has fewer medical resources compared to developed countries so a “live with the virus” strategy would likely overwhelm its medical system.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions show no signs of abating anytime soon, pointing to an increasing risk of global stagflation.

One positive is the inflation profile in China isn’t too bad. True, there’s been a rally in oil prices and other related commodities, which has added to imported inflationary pressures. However, softening domestic demand, especially with the property market still in a deep freeze, may put downward pressure on producer prices. For consumer prices, a sluggish recovery in consumption means that manufacturers will be more hesitant to pass through cost pressures to end buyers.

Finally, there’s the giant property market which remains weak. In February we saw the first-ever contraction in China’s longer-term household lending, a proxy for mortgages.

Given these three mounting headwinds, we expect Beijing to act faster and more aggressively in the coming months.

We now forecast the central bank to cut its key policy rates by a further 10bps in the first half, in addition to our expectations for 100bp of cuts in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. More targeted credit support for hard-hit small and medium sized enterprises as well as services firms and growth areas like manufacturing and green investment, will also likely be stepped up.

In addition to more monetary support, we see a stronger fiscal push in the coming months, particularly to accelerate infrastructure spending as a countercyclical stimulus. And we see other adjustments too such as a relaxation in policy for the property sector.

First published 14th March 2022.

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