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Time for a digital dollar?

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The US Federal Reserve seems to be moving towards a central-bank digital currency – but slowly.

Cash is currently the only central-bank money available to the general public. However, its usage has halved since 2012 and if that trend continues, consumers may demand a digital alternative. The US Federal Reserve is moving closer to a digital currency.

The US central bank is researching the technological and the economic implications of a ‘digital dollar’. But before deciding whether to proceed, it is now consulting on the benefits, risks, policy considerations.

But a digital dollar would be a digital liability of the Fed – unlike other currently-available forms of digital money. It would thus be the safest digital asset available to the general public, with no associated credit or liquidity risk. It would not require deposit insurance, maintaining public confidence, or an underlying asset pool to support its value.

More than 5 per cent of US households are still ‘unbanked’ and a digital dollar could help reduce inequality. It could also cut the high cost of overseas remittances from the US – more than 5 per cent, on average.

Cryptocurrencies have not been adopted widely as a US payment vehicle. They are extremely volatile and customers risk loss, theft or fraud. Their energy footprint is very high too.

Uses for a digital dollar range from personal shopping to tax collection. It would need to be transferrable seamlessly in real time and might be programmable for making automate transactions.

But while privacy is important, some transparency is necessary to deter criminal activity. The private-sector intermediaries that would manage holdings and transactions could be responsible for verifying a customer’s identity.

The Fed is lagging other central banks working on digital currencies, especially the People’s Bank of China, whose e-CNY is closer to launch.

Common standards and infrastructure could lead to faster settlement and lower transaction costs. But if other central banks’ digital currencies are more attractive, the dollar’s share of international transactions could decline. The Fed believes a US digital currency could support the dollar’s existing global status.

However, if people prefer central-bank digital currencies to deposits, assets in the banking system could decrease, pushing up the banks’ funding costs and reducing credit availability. Risk-averse depositors fleeing to the safety of a digital dollar during a financial crisis could cause bank runs.

An interest-paying digital dollar would exacerbate the disruptive effects though they might be mitigated by imposing constraints. And because a digital currency could itself affect interest rates by altering reserves in the banking system, it could become a new monetary policy tool.

Operational resilience is also important: central-bank digital currencies may be more vulnerable to cyberattacks than existing payment services. Cryptography, distributed systems and blockchain technology are options, but mainland China’s e-CNY can operate without the internet.

Compared to the e-CNY or the European Central Bank’s digital EUR, the US is taking a slower approach. Although we believe the Fed is leaning towards eventually issuing a digital dollar, no decision is imminent. With approval from Congress and more research are necessary, a digital dollar is still a long way from fruition.

First published 8th February 2022.

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