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After the peak? Global Economics Quarterly

  • Most central banks hope they can finally take a breather…
  • …but with rising oil prices, uncertainties in labour markets and ongoing demographic and geopolitical shifts…
  • …many will take a while to cut rates, and it may not be by much

As global inflation shows further signs of easing, the era of aggressive interest rate rises may finally be drawing to a close. Many central banks are hoping they will not have to ratchet rates higher still after 18 months of hikes.

The question now is – how long do rates need to stay high? The overriding message from the heads of central banks in the US and Europe is that cuts could still be a way off. We tend to agree, not least as inflation is still set to remain above target in many major economies for several years.

Policymakers stress that they will be watching growth and inflation data to guide them as to what they need to do next. This reflects the high degree of uncertainty about the outlook as the consequences of an array of events play out – including the pandemic, huge shifts in fiscal policy, a war, growing geopolitical strains, protectionist measures, changing labour market dynamics, and a transformational shift in artificial intelligence (AI).

Policymakers will be watching growth and inflation data to guide them

When it comes to growth, we have seen further signs of a global slowdown even as outright recession has been averted. The picture is uneven, with the US reaccelerating. Mainland China’s economy largely disappointed until the recent signs of stabilisation in industry, services, and credit growth. Much of Europe, particularly Germany, has been dragged lower by the ongoing weakness in world trade. And higher interest rates are starting to bite in some markets, with rising mortgage delinquencies and bankruptcies.

Global inflation is slowing, too, though the easy part may be over. Oil prices have risen recently, along with certain food prices, serving as a reminder that inflation may be more volatile in today’s world. But for central banks, their main concern relates to labour markets: what is the risk of a wage-price spiral? The fear that expectations of persistently higher inflation and higher wages could become entrenched means policymakers cannot relax just yet.

Forecasts

Thanks to the ongoing resilience of the Americas, Japan, India, and Indonesia we have raised our global growth forecasts for 2023-24 even though we have lowered our forecasts for mainland China, much of ASEAN, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. We now forecast average global growth of 2.5% this year, and 2.3% next, along with inflation of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively.

2.5%
Global growth forecast for 2023
2.3%
Global growth forecast for 2024

We have also made our first stab at forecasts for 2025, when we see global growth reviving a little to 2.5%, but still at a rate that is below the pre-pandemic trend. Clearly, forecasting that far out means the risks on both sides are substantial. Moreover, the pace of growth in 2025 hinges on what happens in 2024: economically, politically, and geopolitically, with US presidential elections among the events that will be watched closely.

Our overriding global view has long been that the global growth-inflation-interest rate trade-off will deteriorate over the medium term, and it still is. But we see some potential outperformers. India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil are among the diverse group of middle-income countries where we think the growth fundamentals may actually be better than pre-pandemic.

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