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The future of food
Can we meet the needs of 9bn people?
- As populations grow and many lower-income economies get richer, food demand should rise…
- …and making sure there is enough food, and in the right places, looks set to be a challenge…
- …with implications for poverty, inflation and growth across the world
Food is not only essential for the future of mankind. It is fundamental to so much of the global economy.
It accounts for 10-50% of consumer spending in different parts of the world, 8% of global trade and surging food inflation has caused policymakers headaches with increased frequency in the past two decades. But, more importantly, it’s crucial for our survival.
As of 2023, roughly 10% (783m) of the world’s population doesn’t get enough food. With the world’s population likely to add nearly another billion people over the next two decades and incomes rising, total food consumption will likely rise by more than 50%, and possibly by 70% by 2050.
c.10%
People don’t get enough food (HSBC estimate based on World Food Programme data)
>50%
Expected rise in global food consumption by 2050 (HSBC estimate)
For some products, demand will likely rise more quickly. Typically, as incomes rise, food spending pivots towards meat, protein, and fats, and away from carbohydrates like rice, although there will be regional divergences. Dietary changes may mean that western demand for plant-based proteins and pulses could rise quickly. But what are the chances of us meeting these needs?
Historically, global food supply has been able to keep up with demand, even if there have been challenges around making sure everyone has enough. Three channels are used: using more land for food production, shifting how we use these products (between say, food and feed for animals, or fuel) and increasing crop yields. With challenges in terms of climate change, devoting even more land to agricultural production may not be possible, while the ability to switch crops from being used for animal feed to food will depend on diets – and may be harder if meat consumption rises globally alongside incomes. More extreme and uncertain weather looks set to mean greater volatility in food production volumes across the world.
Technological improvements could help to substantially lift food production in a sustainable way.
And so it may be that we’re left with improving yields and cutting food waste at the heart of the solution. This could involve a range of technologies – from robot farmers to climate control and from blockchain to food sharing apps, technological improvements could help to substantially lift food production in a sustainable way. New technologies could mean greater output in all farms worldwide – from using better processes, tackling labour shortages, and controlling climate for crops to grow.
We also need to cut food waste. An eye-watering 14% of food produced is lost between harvest and retail, and on top of that, 17% of food products are wasted by consumers – reducing these numbers alone could help to mitigate any food supply challenges. And even if we can tackle the global supply of food, we also need to make sure it can get to the right people.
14%
Food lost between harvest and retail (UN)
17%
Food products wasted by consumers (UN)
The role of global trade in making sure supply and demand are matched globally is key – and so any developments on export restrictions will play a role in determining whether we have enough food for all.
The world needs this to work. Without it, food poverty will only increase, keeping millions of people at risk of starvation. Food prices could keep rising or remain volatile (as we’ve seen in recent years), meaning more people who can afford to eat may not be able to afford a healthy, balanced diet. It may mean spending in other parts of the economy gets trimmed as food spending rises.
Whether we can produce enough food for all will depend on the trade-off between improving technological solutions and the risks of climate change or export bans affecting food supply. While there is hope that this can be achieved, the path to food security is uncertain, and the future of food looks set to be one of the most important topics of our lifetimes.
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