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Artificial Intelligence
The good, the bad, and the ugly
The AI revolution is upon us. As with the internet in the late 1990s, AI technology has the potential to lead to significant productivity improvements. However, these benefits are unlikely to be evenly distributed. To help investors understand the impact that AI is likely to have on the economy, we look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of AI.
Exciting times
AI has been productively employed in many areas of the economy now for several years, but in the past 18 months, public interest has boomed. In financial markets, the technology has gone from being the specialist subject of a handful of analysts to one of the most widely discussed themes, with announcements on the topic capable of precipitating major market moves.
Why the excitement now? What’s changed, of course, is Generative AI. Before the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, most people believed there was something uniquely human about the act of being creative. ChatGPT (and other models since) have clearly shown that AI is also very capable at this skill.
0.1-1.0%
Estimates of potential increases in labour productivity from AI by McKinsey and PwC
This has been a psychological shock for some. The response has been a significant degree of polarisation. We see lots of hype from those who are excited about this technology and its potential to drive productivity. Others worry about the potential side-effects, such as jobs being displaced. The more pessimistic fear the scope for significant harm or even an existential threat to humanity.
15%
Of tasks could be impacted by AI, based on estimate from OpenAI
Who to believe? Well, in our view, the most likely outcome is probably somewhat more prosaic than the arguments at either end of the spectrum. Broadly speaking, we see grounds to be optimistic about the wider economic impact of AI, though not all companies, markets and people will benefit equally. But while we are not necessarily convinced by some of the arguments about the perceived threat of AI, we think it is useful for investors to understand them, given that they have the potential to shape opinions towards a technology already driving huge shifts in asset prices.
The full note, available to clients of HSBC Global Research, explores the arguments and evidence about the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of AI, from aggregate productivity (good), to a look at capital vs labour (bad), to what the nature of “truth” is (the ugly) – and so much more.
It is still relatively early days for AI. Its impact in the areas above and others besides will become clear in time. But there are already more than enough potential consequences for economists, businesses, regulators – and of course investors – to weigh up.
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